Fido BVA Deep-Dive — Ghana February 2026

1. Headline Variances

GHS

Metric	Budget	Actual	Variance
Revenue (GHS M)	41.7	36.1	-13.5%
Disbursements (GHS M)	338.1	255.1	-24.5%
Loanbook EOP (GHS M)	550.9	468.2	-15.0%
Repayments (GHS M)	327.3	267.4	-18.3%

L0 Customers	26,026	19,139	-26.5%
Loans Disbursed	173,676	131,725	-24.2%

PAR30+	14.7%	15.4%	+0.7pp
PAR90+	6.6%	8.4%	+1.8pp

Disbursements -24.5% vs budget — significant shortfall requiring root cause investigation.

The 5 Whys — Why Disbursements Missed by GHS 83.0M

The surface answer — "fewer loans" — is circular. Below is the causal chain, each level backed by data.

Disbursements missed by GHS 83M because 41,951 fewer loans were disbursed (131.7K vs 173.7K budget), while average ticket was virtually unchanged (GHS 1,937 vs 1,947). Decomposition: 98% volume effect (−GHS 81.7M), 2% size effect (−GHS 1.7M).

↓

42K fewer loans were disbursed because total applications fell to 170.5K — down 6.6% from Jan's 182.6K and ~15% below the ~200K implied by budget. Both pipelines contracted: repeat apps 130.9K (vs 175K in Oct), L0 apps 39.6K (vs 48K in Oct). Approval rates were stable — the miss is demand-side.

↓

Applications contracted when they historically rise Jan→Feb, breaking a 4-year seasonal pattern. Jan→Feb change: 2026 = −6.6%, vs 2025 = +2.2%, 2024 = +5.6%, 2023 = +4.5%. This is a ~10pp swing vs the historical average, signaling a structural demand shift.

↓

Underlying demand is shrinking because the active portfolio entered Feb at GHS 464M — 11.2% below the budgeted GHS 523M — producing fewer maturing loans and fewer repeat application triggers. Only 113.8K loans closed in Jan → 56.7K reborrowed in Feb (49.8% reborrow rate). Repeat AR actually recovered to 86.0% (from 84.5% in Jan), so the bottleneck is demand, not credit policy.

↓

The opening portfolio was already behind because Jan's shortfall carried forward. This is a self-reinforcing cycle: fewer disbursements → smaller EOP → lower next-month BOP → fewer maturities → fewer repeat apps. Budget waterfall: BOP 522.6 + 338.1 − 291.0 − 18.8 = EOP 550.9. Actual: 463.9 + 255.1 − 235.6 − 15.6 = 467.8. The BOP gap (−GHS 58.7M) compounds through every line.

Core finding: The Feb miss is not a single-month aberration but a self-reinforcing portfolio contraction cycle. A smaller-than-budgeted portfolio generates fewer maturing loans, which suppresses repeat demand, which widens the disbursement gap, which further shrinks the portfolio. The budget assumed a growth trajectory that hasn't materialized since Jan. Breaking this cycle requires either a step-change in L0 acquisition (currently 26.5% below plan) or a structural reset of the budget trajectory to reflect the actual BOP of ~GHS 468M.

4. Application Pipeline

BY CREATION DATE · TRAILING 6M

Month Created	Total Apps	Repeat Apps	Approved	AR	L0 Apps	Approved	AR
2025-09	210,449	157,280	139,246	88.5%	53,169	24,867	46.8%
2025-10	222,162	174,095	149,845	86.1%	48,067	22,919	47.7%
2025-11	199,901	153,523	134,710	87.7%	46,378	21,893	47.2%
2025-12	228,737	187,491	164,357	87.7%	41,246	16,965	41.1%
2026-01	182,589	137,406	116,116	84.5%	45,183	20,898	46.3%
2026-02	170,480	130,869	112,577	86.0%	39,611	19,138	48.3%

Note: Pipeline groups by application creation date (cohort view). Counts differ from headline disbursements which use disbursement date. Recent months may understate approvals for applications still in processing.

Reborrow rate: 56,666 / 113,795 = 49.8% (clients with loan closed in prior month who took a new loan)

8. Seasonality

Jan→Feb · 4-YEAR VIEW

Period	Jan Apps	Feb Apps	Change	Feb AR
Jan-26 → Feb-26	182,589	170,480	-6.6%	77.3%
Jan-25 → Feb-25	154,517	157,870	+2.2%	78.7%
Jan-24 → Feb-24	134,475	141,974	+5.6%	77.3%
Jan-23 → Feb-23	94,231	98,486	+4.5%	100.2%

3. Disbursement Decomposition

VOLUME vs SIZE

Total gap: -83.4 GHS M (Budget: 338.1 → Actual: 255.1)

Volume: 173,676 → 131,725 loans (-81.7M) +98%

+98%

Ticket Size: GHS 1,947 → 1,937 (-1.7M) +2%

+2%

98% of the disbursement gap is volume (loan count)-driven. The ticket size effect is secondary (2%). Budget assumed 173,676 loans at GHS 1,947 avg; actual was 131,725 loans at GHS 1,937.

5. Repayment Decomposition

POOL vs RATE

Total gap: -62.4 GHS M (Budget: 327.3 → Actual: 267.4)

Pool Effect: avg loanbook 536.8 → 466.0 (-43.1M) +69%

+69%

Rate Effect: repay rate 61.0% → 57.4% (-19.3M) +31%

+31%

69% of the repayment shortfall is mechanical — a smaller loanbook produced a smaller repayment pool. Credit quality (rate effect) is a minor contributor.

6. Loanbook Flow

WATERFALL

Component	Budget	Actual	Variance
BOP (GHS M)	522.6	463.9	-11.2%
+ Disbursements (GHS M)	338.1	255.1	-24.5%
- Repayments (GHS M)	291.0	235.6	-19.0%
- Write-offs (GHS M)	18.8	15.6	-17.0%
= EOP (GHS M)	550.9	468.2	-15.0%

7. Portfolio Quality — PAR Layers (FIN005)

COVENANT · GHS M

Layer	Budget %	Budget Bal	Actual %	Actual Bal	Variance
Current	80.4%	442.9	77.0%	360.5	-3.4pp
PAR0	4.9%	27.0	7.6%	35.4	+2.7pp
PAR30	4.1%	22.6	3.6%	16.9	-0.5pp
PAR60	4.0%	22.0	3.5%	16.2	-0.5pp
PAR90	3.0%	16.5	3.7%	17.4	+0.7pp
PAR120	3.2%	17.6	4.6%	21.7	+1.4pp
PAR150	0.4%	2.2	0.0%	0.1	-0.4pp
Total	100.0%	550.9	100.0%	468.2	-82.7

PAR30+: 15.4% (budget 14.7%, +0.7pp) PAR90+: 8.4% (budget 6.6%, +1.8pp) Provisions: 41.7M

Root Cause Attribution — Ranked by Impact

#	Root Cause	Mechanism	Est. GHS M
1	Application volume shortfall	170.5K total apps vs ~200K+ implied by budget. At actual overall AR of 77%, this yields ~132K loans vs 174K budget. Both L0 and repeat pipelines below plan — demand-side, not approval rate.	~−58
2	Loanbook BOP deficit (compounding)	BOP 463.9M vs budget 522.6M (−11.2%). Smaller active book → fewer maturities → fewer repeat triggers. This cascaded from Jan's miss and will cascade into March.	~−20
3	Collection rate softness	Actual collection rate 57.4% vs budget 61.0% (−3.6pp). On a GHS 537M budget pool, this 3.6pp gap = ~GHS 19M less collected. Possible driver: portfolio composition shift toward shorter-tenure loans.	~−19
4	L0 acquisition miss	19.1K L0 disbursed vs 26.0K budget (−26.5%). L0 AR is healthy at 48.3% — the miss is fewer applicants (39.6K vs budget-implied ~54K). Direct GHS impact is small (L0 avg ticket ~GHS 258) but L0s are the future repeat base.	~−1.8

Implication: The budget trajectory assumes portfolio growth that hasn't materialized. March budget should be stress-tested against the actual BOP of ~GHS 468M, not the planned ~GHS 551M. L0 acquisition is the key lever to break the compounding cycle — every L0 acquired today becomes 3-4 repeat loans over the next 6 months.

Risk Watch:

PAR90+ at 8.4% vs 6.6% budget (+1.8pp) — PAR120 is the worst bucket at 4.6% vs 3.2% budget, indicating aging of the delinquent book. Monitor for covenant implications.
Reborrow rate at 49.8% — needs benchmarking vs prior months. If Jan closers had avg duration ~28 days, some may reborrow in early March (R3 timing artifact). Re-check at mid-March.
March BOP lock — Feb EOP of GHS 468M is now the March BOP. Even with budget-level Feb activity, the loanbook gap would persist. Assess whether March targets need rebaselining.

9. Avg Loan Duration

TRAILING

Month Disbursed	Avg Duration (Closed Loans)
2025-09	29 days
2025-10	29 days
2025-11	27 days
2025-12	27 days
2026-01	22 days (70% closed)
2026-02	13 days (21% closed)

Ghana — February 2026 Budget vs Actual